This weeks’ PGA Tour stop, the Waste Management Phoenix Open, has what looks like a fun lineup. Webb Simpson is the favorite (and why not?) at 14/1. He’s followed by last week’s winner, Brandt Snedeker (whom I’m surprised is still in the lineup) at 20/1. Martin Laird and Nick Watney are in at 22/1. Then there’s a big pile at 25/1, including Matt Kuchar, Phil Mickelson, Rickie Fowler and Bill Haas.

Given the egalitarian state of the Tour these days, practically anyone could win this event. The one I’d most like to see win is Phil, of course. But—even taking into account the fact that he has been (rightfully) distracted by family issues—his short game and putting are off. Phil has always been wild off the tee, but has made up for it with his crazy good wedge play and putting. Without those ...

If you’re looking for a feel-good story this week, how about JB Holmes. He’s a two-time winner (2006, 2008), who is coming off brain surgery for structural defects on the cerebellum called Chiari malformations. The initial surgery went well, but a month later doctors discovered he was allergic to an adhesive used in the titanium plate in his skull. He was airlifted from his home in Kentucky to Johns Hopkins in Baltimore for another surgery. Holmes actually returned to the tour last week, where he missed the cut after opening with a 76. He recovered in the second round, though, with a 69.

Rickie Fowler may be the best bet overall, however. He was T13 last year, and in second alone in 2010.  He also shot a 62 on this course last year.

The complete odds for the Waste Management Phoenix Open are below, courtesy of Bovada, the world’s largest betting destination.

Phil didn’t have a good showing at this weekend’s Farmers Insurance Open, but it turns out he had more on his mind. Media reports say that his ten year old daughter Sophia was undergoing tests relating to a seizure she had experienced the previous week. Phil said “I just wasn’t able to focus.”

No kidding. How could he?

Sophia returned to school Friday and Phil improved with a 68.

Farmers Insurance Open

Thu, 1/26:
GOLF 3p - 6p ET

Fri, 1/27:
GOLF 3p - 6p ET

Sat, 1/28:
CBS 3p - 6p ET

Sun, 1/29:
CBS 3p - 6:30p ET

The Abu Dhabi Championship, with Tiger’s first start of the season, is exclusively on the Golf Channel

Thurs - Sunday:
GOLF 4 am - 8 am ET

Bubba Watson is my new hero. He just dropped $110,000 on General Lee 1, the 1969 Dodge Charger seen in the opening credits of the original Dukes of Hazard. The show apparently went through 300 of the cars during its run, but this was the first. It’s now fully restored.

That show hit all the right spots for me at that time. Cars, girls and Waylon Jennings music. I’m a big country fan, and one of my favorite concert memories was seeing the Highwaymen (Waylon, Willie, Cash and Kristofferson) at the Cap Center in Maryland.

A few years ago, the US Defense Department planned an experiment that would have had large numbers of people betting on the likelihood of various geopolitical events. The DOD’s theory was that where individual “experts” might (likely will) miss something when analyzing a situation, the combined wisdom of crowds—in which each person has but a small chunk of information—could possibly create a better picture. The experiment was abandoned when members of Congress got wind of it and decided to grandstand about the DOD “betting” on terrorist events. Like many things, the members of Congress just didn’t get it.

What the DOD was proposing was a prediction market, which takes advantage of some of the principles of crowdsourcing. That’s all explained pretty well in a couple of books I’ve read on the topic: Crowdsourcing: Why the Power of the Crowd Is Driving the Future of Business and The Wisdom of Crowds

I relate this story by way of explaining why I post betting odds for various golf events, even though I am not a betting man. Indeed, I think that gambling is just a tax on stupidity. The system is set up so that you lose.

But that’s not to say that the numbers are not worthwhile. I like to look at the odds to see what the crowd seems to think about about various players’ chances of winning. Reading articles written by “pro golf experts” relies on just one person’s information. And no matter how informed that person is, there still are holes in the data. With the odds, I imagine a large group where some know a thing or two about the course, and others, about the players’ health, or their caddy relationship, while still others have considered equipment changes, weather, and so on. The combined knowledge (and their commitment to that information) then is reflected in the dollars the bettors put down on the game, and thus in the odds.

All that said, the bettors favorite for the weekend at the Farmers Insurance Open are Phil Mickelson and Nick Watney, coming in at 14/1. They’re followed by Hunter Mahan, at 18/1, Brandt Snedeker at 22/1 and Ben Crane at 25/1. What all of this says to me is that its anyone’s game and no player is a particular favorite. Briny Baird and Billy Mayfair, on the other hand, at 175/1 are getting practically no action at all.

Over in Dubai, Martin Kaymer and Rory McIlroy are the favorites at 13/2. Tiger is just a little behind, at 7/1. Considering that in his heyday, Tiger often was a 3/2 favorite (meaning a bet of two pays 3) or better, this doesn’t express a lot of confidence. Lee Westwood and Luke Donald are 12/1, while Sergio Garcie is 25/1.
Lee Westwood

The complete betting odds for the Farmers Insurance Open and Abu Dhabi Championship are below, courtesy of Bovada.

The Farmers Insurance Open this week is played at Torrey Pines, where Tiger Woods has won seven times, including the 2008 US Open. Woods, however, won’t be there. Instead, he’s chosen to start his season at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship on an unfamiliar track.

I’m sure he didn’t do this on a lark, so I’m wondering about the strategy. Assuming Tiger’s there to win and not just to collect the hefty appearance fee, what does Abu Dhabi offer that Torrey Pines does not? The smart money would seem to be on Torrey Pines, one of five courses that account for forty percent Tiger’s Tour victories (Torrey Pines - 7; Bridgestone - 7; Bay Hill - 6; Cog Hill - 5; Augusta - 4).

I can see a downside in this, however. Expectations at Torrey Pines would be astronomical, and anything less than a top five would be viewed as a disappointment. Abu Dhabi, on the other hand, carries none of the expectations. As a bonus, it’s halfway around the world, out of the US Media limelight. Most here won’t see the event, except on Golf Channel highlights.

Then there’s the level of competition. If you buy into the notion that the European Tour right now is the superior tour, he’s facing tougher competition in the desert. Indeed, the top four in the world golf rankings are scheduled for an appearance there. Torrey Pines has just one of the top ten: Dustin Johnson at nine. I’m not sure whether is is a plus or a minus. On the one hand, playing against top competition may make Tiger better; then again, he may have a better chance at a winning against a less powerful field. Then again, not winning against lesser competition makes him look bad.

Gee. I’m sounding like that old joke about economists: Put five economists on a problem, and you’ll get ten opinions. “On the one hand ... but on the other hand.”

At any rate, I’ll be very interested to see how Tiger fares at Abu Dhabi. And I’m interested to see what others think of the Desert Strategy.

The Farmers Insurance Open is one of a triumvirate of tournaments on the West Coast Swing once associated with Hollywood Royalty—Bob Hope, Andy Williams and Bing Crosby. Crosby’s Clambake now is the AT&T National Pro-Am, the Hope is now the “Humana-Clinton,” and Andy Williams’ tournament now is the Farmers Insurance Open.

Crooner Andy Williams (Born Free, Moon River) was the celebrity host of the tournament from 1968 to 1988, under a variety of sponsor names. Before that, the event was the San Diego Open.

The San Diego Open was played at the San Diego Country Club from 1952 - 1953, then moved to the Rancho Sana Fe Club in Rancho Santa Fe, California. It moved to Mission Valley Country Club in 1955, and stayed there until 1961, with a one year stop over at the Singing Hills Country Club in El Cajon, California. It’s also been played at the Mission Valley Country Club (which subsequently changed its name to the Stardust Country Club and then to the Riverwalk Golf Club.).

The tournament moved to Torrey Pines in 1968, and has stayed there ever since. There actually are two courses at Torrey Pines, and the first 36 holes are split between the North and South Courses. The weekend rounds are played on the South.

Buick became the tournament’s sponsor in 1992 and continued in that role until 2009, when the auto industry meltdown and subsequent government bailout of GM made sponsoring a golf tournament unseemly. Farmers Insurance stepped up and became the sponsor in 2010.

As an aside, when I played Torrey Pines a couple of years ago, the locals told me that they thought the North was actually the better of the two. I played the South anyway.

During his career, Tiger Woods has absolutely owned the tournament, having won a record six times there: 1999, 2003, 2006, 2007 and 2008. That doesn’t include his epic 2008 US Open victory at Torrey Pines. Native son Phil Mickelson has won there three times: 1993, 2000 and 2001. Two Time winners include Tommy Bolt, Arnold Palmer, Steve Pate, JC Snead and Tom Watson.

For photos of Torrey Pines, along with satellite images of the holes, visit here.

A list of past winners follows:

Continued...