The good news about this year’s FedEx Cup is that no one is a lock to win. That actually makes the final round interesting. The downside is that the end-game is so complicated that the Tour had to create a series of charts to explain it all. You can see them here.

The short version is as follows:

• If Furyk, Retief Goosen or Geoff Ogilvy wins the event, he will win the FedExCup if Charley Hoffman and Paul Casey finish outside of the top three
• If Luke Donald wins the event, he wins the FedExCup
• If Casey or Hoffman wins the event, he wins the FedExCup, regardless of how anybody else finishes

A divorce on the one hand and inconsistent play on the other hasn’t stopped Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson from sharing the lead for the oddsmakers at 12/1 for the Barclays Championship. I’m actually having a hard time figuring out the oddsmakers fascination with these two characters. Aside from Mickelson’s Masters’ victory, neither has done a thing to merit their consistent location at the top of the list.

Odds for the 2010 Barclays follows, courtesy of Bodog, the world’s largest betting destination.

It is somehow fitting that while Phil Mickelson won the Tour Championship, Tiger Woods still was the big winner.

Thanks to the points system devised by the Tour, if Tiger finished second, no one out of the top five could win the FedEx Cup. Phil, who began the weekend in fourteenth place did what he had to do. But Tiger sealed the deal with the second.

In some ways, it’s a microcosm of the way Phil Mickelson’s career has gone. I’m convinced that absent Tiger, Phil would have been the dominant force on the Tour over the last ten years. With Tiger ...

GolfBlogger favorite Kenny Perry leads the Tour Championship after Saturday’s round at East Lake, building a two shot lead on Tiger with a 64.

But it doesn’t matter in the overall FedEx Cup picture. If I’m doing the math correctly, for Perry to win, he has to hope that Woods finishes fifth or worse; that Stricker finishes fourth or worse and; that Furyk and Johnson finish third or worse (Johnson would tie Perry with a third). The fifth place going into the tournament, Heath Slocum (and all others below him) cannot challenge a Perry first place finish.

Furyk currently is tied for 15th, seven shots back. He’s not a contender. Johnson is thirteen shots back. He’s out of it also. So of the top players going into the Tour Championshipo the only ones that really count after three rounds are Perry, Woods, and Stricker.

Here’s an analysis of the chances of the top players after three rounds: Perry, Woods, Mickelson, O’Hair, Harrington and Stricker.

Only Tiger and Stricker (currently six shots back) have a chance to take the Cup outright with a win in the Tour Championship.

Tiger wins the Cup in any scenario where he finishes second, and Stricker doesn’t win.

Stricker wins if he finishes second or third, and Tiger finishes fifth or worse.

Mickelson, currently in third, can take the Cup if he wins; Tiger finishes ninth or worse and; Stricker and Furyk finish fourth or worse.

Harrington has to win the Tour Championship, with Tiger finishing third or worse.

O’Hair needs both Tiger and Stricker to finish third or worse.

Here’s where you can watch the Tour Championship—the culminating event of the FedEx Cup

THU-FRI: 1-6p ET GOLF
SAT: 12-2p ET GOLF
SAT: 2-6p ET NBC
SUN: 11:30-1:30p GOLF
SUN: 1:30-6p ET NBC

Stewart Cink, ranked 26th in the FedEx Cup playoffs: “When they say you have a mathematical chance, it means you have no chance.”

He’s referring to the points system in the FedEx Cup that puts the top five in the driver’s seat. If any of those guys win the tournament, they take home the $10 million check.

But those outside the top five all have a mathematical chance. As I noted in an earlier post, last place John Senden can win if he finishes first, Tiger finishes last and Steve Stricker, Jim Furyk, Zach Johnson, Heath Slocum and Padraig Harrington finish worse than sixth.

A New York Times article also has computed a scenario—not unlikely—in which Jim Furyk can win even without finishing first this weekend:

All that would have to happen would be for someone from outside the top eight seeds to win the event — a list that includes but is not limited to Kenny Perry (No. 9), Dustin Johnson (No. 11), Phil Mickelson (No. 14), Ángel Cabrera (No. 24) — and for Furyk to finish second and for Woods to finish fourth or lower.

The permutations are endless, and pointless. Tiger will lap the field and take it all home.

The odds for the 2009 Tour Championship this weekend show something I haven’t seen in a while: Tiger Woods is even money to win. Padraig Harrington and Jim Furyk are at 14/1; Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson, 18/1.

What’s interesting is that Padraig Harrington is the bettors’ second choice to win the Tour Championship, but that he doesn’t control his own destiny in winning the overall FedEx Cup.  As the points system is set up, only the top five in points—Tiger, Stricker, Furyk, Johnson and Heath Slocum—can walk away with the trophy simply by winning.

Padraig Harrington and everyone else needs help. Harrington can only take home the Cup if he wins the Tour Championship and Tiger finishes third or worse.

The player currently in fifth in the points system, Heath Slocum, is set at 80/1. No one, it seems, expects him to win.

The complete odds for the Tour Championship, as set by Bodog Sports, is as follows: