First Sports Illustrated’s Bob Casper says that Phil Mickelson won’t win the Open Championship. Now ESPN’s Jason Sobel chimes in to say that Tiger won’t win it either.

I think it’s got to be easier to predict who WON’T win than who will.

As his number one reason, Sobel says that Tiger’s lack of familiarity with the course will work against him. At first, that seems like a d’uh kind of line, but it holds doubly true with Tiger. As I’ve pointed out here in the past, SIX of his ten majors have come on either Augusta or St. Andrews. Once he learns a course, he owns it. But he’s no more effective than any other golfer the first time through.

Sobel also fingers the rust factor and Tiger’s continued short game slide. Open Championships tend to favor those with excellent and imaginative short games, and good putting. Tiger currently is 135th on tour in putting. Not good enough for a win.

But the reason I like the most is that the level of competition has caught up to Tiger. Its not only the big three, or the five. I’d guess that it’s now the Big Dozen. There are probably twelve players who have the level of talent to win this one.

And that’s why it’s easier to predict who won’t than who will.

Sam Snead once advised that you should never bet on a professional golfer unless you get at least 8-1 odds. He reasoned that there was so much talent on tour that any one of the top twenty players has as good a chance to win as any other. Snead was a crafty guy and his logic is just as pertinent today as it was when he wrote that in early 1960s.

So I’ll go out on a limb and say that we WON’T see a victory from Woods, Mickelson, Singh, Goosen or Scott.

You notice that I’ve left out Jim Furyk from that list of the top six players in the world rankings.

I think he’s got a chance.

Here’s the US television schedule for the British Open ChampionshiP (Yes, I know the official title is the Open Championship).

Thursday, July 20
6:30 a.m. - 2:30 p.m. ET on TNT

Friday, July 21
7 a.m. - 2:30 p.m. ET on TNT

Saturday, July 22
7 a.m. - 9 a.m. ET on TNT
9 a.m. - 2:30 p.m. ET on ABC

Sunday, July 23
6 a.m. - 8 a.m. ET on TNT
• 8 a.m. - 1:30 p.m. ET on ABC

A hint for those of you setting your TiVos ... especially on Sunday ... remember to set it to also record whatever shows are scheduled in the hour following the end of “official coverage”. That way, when the Championship takes longer than scheduled (as it inevitably does) on Sunday you won’t miss the last few deciding holes.

Reader Gary points out that the Official Carnoustie 2007 Blog has opened for business.

Michelle Wie apparently is among the 8,584 people who have applied for an entry to the 2006 US Open at Winged Foot in Mamaroneck, New York. She will be in a local qualifier on May 15 in Hawaii, and if successful there, will go on to another in New Jersey.

Wie is trying to become the first woman to qualify for the US Open.

She still is ruling out a try at the British Open Championship.

Although the Royal and Ancient opened the doors for women to qualify for the Open Championship, it appears as if there will be no takers.

Under the rules set out last year, there were twenty women professionals who could have tried their hand in the regional qualifiers. All twenty, however, have apparently commited themselves to the Women’s World Matchplay.

Open Championship regionals begin July 5; the World Matchplay begins July 6.

Michelle Wie still has an outside chance of making the Open Championship, however. She has accepted another invitation to the John Deere. The highest finisher there who is not already in the Open gets an automatic spot.

I was hoping that someone wold try. It’s kind of sad that the Royal and Ancient has taken a step toward gender equity, but none of the gender are going to take them up on it.