FedEx Cup Final Round Possibilities Analysis

GolfBlogger favorite Kenny Perry leads the Tour Championship after Saturday’s round at East Lake, building a two shot lead on Tiger with a 64.

But it doesn’t matter in the overall FedEx Cup picture. If I’m doing the math correctly, for Perry to win, he has to hope that Woods finishes fifth or worse; that Stricker finishes fourth or worse and; that Furyk and Johnson finish third or worse (Johnson would tie Perry with a third). The fifth place going into the tournament, Heath Slocum (and all others below him) cannot challenge a Perry first place finish.

Furyk currently is tied for 15th, seven shots back. He’s not a contender. Johnson is thirteen shots back. He’s out of it also. So of the top players going into the Tour Championshipo the only ones that really count after three rounds are Perry, Woods, and Stricker.

Here’s an analysis of the chances of the top players after three rounds: Perry, Woods, Mickelson, O’Hair, Harrington and Stricker.

Only Tiger and Stricker (currently six shots back) have a chance to take the Cup outright with a win in the Tour Championship.

Tiger wins the Cup in any scenario where he finishes second, and Stricker doesn’t win.

Stricker wins if he finishes second or third, and Tiger finishes fifth or worse.

Mickelson, currently in third, can take the Cup if he wins; Tiger finishes ninth or worse and; Stricker and Furyk finish fourth or worse.

Harrington has to win the Tour Championship, with Tiger finishing third or worse.

O’Hair needs both Tiger and Stricker to finish third or worse.