The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable | 
 enlarge | Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House
Category: Book
List Price: $26.95
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Rating:  342 reviews
Sales Rank: 41
Media: Hardcover
Edition: 1
Number Of Items: 1
Pages: 400
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1.5
Dimensions (in): 9.4 x 6.5 x 1.4
ISBN: 1400063515
Dewey Decimal Number: 003.54
EAN: 9781400063512
ASIN: 1400063515
Publication Date: April 17, 2007
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Amazon.com Review
Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.
Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson
 Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.
Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.
Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but its something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.
The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.
Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."
In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson
Product Description
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan.
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 Svarta svanar aer ofoerutsaegbara October 14, 2008
Nicholas Taleb aer foedd i Libanon, doktor i finansiell ekonomi och foere detta boersmaeklare pa Wall Street. Hans bok The Black Swan var 2007 ars facklitteraera baestsaeljare pa naetbokhandeln Amazon. Den har oeversatts till 27 sprak och recenserats i maengder av tidningar, magasin, TV-program och bloggar. The Black Swan aer en personlig beraettelse om historia, kunskapsteori, sannolikhetslaera, beslutsfattande och kognitiv psykologi.
Boktiteln syftar pa en hoegst osannolik haendelse som i huvudsak har tre karaktaersdrag: den aer ofoerutsaegbar, den har stor inverkan och efter att den intraeffat konstruerar vi en foerklaring som far den att framsta som mer foerutsaegbar aen den faktiskt var. Den 11 september 2001 och tsunamikatastrofen 2004 aer exempel pa svarta svanar, menar Taleb, men de finns genom maensklighetens hela historia och aeven i vara personliga liv. Inom framtidsstudier talas det om begreppet wild card (joker) som betyder ungefaer samma sak som svart svan.
Metaforen bygger pa den gamla vaesterlaendska foerestaellningen om att alla svanar aer vita. Naer europeerna senare upptaeckte Australien sag de foer foersta gangen att det aeven finns svarta svanar. En svart svan blev pa sa saett en metafor foer det hoegst osannolika och ofoerutsaegbara.
Talebs beraettarstil aer arrogant men ocksa tankevaeckande och humoristisk; han aer en naturlig provokatoer som njuter av att sparka mot intellektuella eliter och vad han uppfattar som bedraegliga vetenskapliga konventioner. Han underkaenner hela det ekonomiska och samhaellsvetenskapliga kollektivet vars teorier och modeller utgar fran det normala och genomsnittliga. Studiet av det normala aer ofta irrelevant foer framtiden, menar Taleb, och doktrinen om den statistiska normalfoerdelningen har invaggat vetenskapen i tron att vi lyckats bemaestrat det osaekra, det osannolika.
Naestan alla samhaellsforskare arbetar under denna falska tro som Taleb kallar den stora intellektuella bluffen. Ekonomer och planerare raeknar inte med de aterverkningar som extraordinaera haendelser foer med sig - de aer offer foer prognostisering inside the box - och aer inte baettre pa att goera foerutsaegelser aen astrologer som spar i stjaernorna.
Han finner det skandaloest hur vi - trots att erfarenheten visar pa motsatsen - fortsaetter med trendframskrivningar och prognoser som utesluter avvikelser och extraordinaera haendelser. Vi luras alltfoer laett av dem som vill ledsaga oss in i framtiden med vad Taleb kallar nerd knowledge, missledande matematiska formler som behandlar vaerlden som ett spel daer omstaendigheterna aer kaenda och utfallet kan kalkyleras tillfoerlitligt och precist.
Var foermaga att modellera och foerutse vaerlden har tvaertom minskat med dess tilltagande komplexitet, menar Taleb, vilket tyder pa att det ofoerutsaegbara, de svarta svanarna, far en vaexande roll.
Vi boer vara frisinnade, bottom-up, skeptiska, praktiska och empiriska foer att baettre foersta vaerldens osaekerhet och risk, och inte foerlita oss pa den konventionella, top-down, teoretiska och foerdomsfulla huvudfaran (Taleb benaemner den platonisk) som inriktar sig pa foerutsaegelser och prognoser. Hans foerebilder aer matematikern Henri Poincare, vetenskapsteoretikern Karl Popper, ekonomen Friedrich Hayek, psykologerna Daniel Kahneman och Amos Tversky samt beslutsteoretikern Howard Raiffa.
Taleb haenvisar framfoer allt till Popper och dennes samhaellsvetenskapliga angreppssaett, piecemeal tinkering, och kritik mot moejligheten att foerutsaega historiens utveckling.
Taleb tar foeljande exempel foer att illustrera Poppers tankar. Foerestaell dig att du aer en medeltida prognosmakare som far i uppdrag att foerutspa vad som sker i framtiden. Foer att lyckas med det maste du foerutse bland annat angmaskinen, elektriciteten, atombomben och internet. Annars missar du hela den historiska utvecklingen och daermed ocksa framtiden. Men om du lyckas foerutse de tekniska genombrotten (och se in i den kommande historien), da vet du vad en angmaskin, elektricitet, atombomb och internet aer - vilket innebaer att du ocksa har uppfunnit dem.
Mer kortfattat uttrycker Taleb resonemanget sa haer: Foer att foersta framtiden till den grad att du kan foerutse den, maste du infoerliva element fran framtiden. Argumentet aer egentligen sa fundamentalt att det naestan framstar som trivialt; det intressanta aer varfoer vi inte tar mer haensyn till detta. Poppers "bevis" gar givetvis att problematisera, vilket Taleb avstar fran.
Varfoer blev boken en sadan succe? Den innehaller ju ingenting nytt. Kritiken av den induktiva metoden (som Black Swan theory i huvudsak bygger pa) och alla andra fragestaellningar och teorier Taleb refererar till aer vael kaenda inom vetenskapssamhaellet. Min tolkning aer att framgangen beror pa Talebs personliga och anekdotiska beraettarstil, hans foermaga att foerklara enkelt och roligt foer en bred publik sadant som tidigare var foerbehallet en elit av filosofer och forskare. Framgangsformeln aer uppror, sjaelvsaekerhet och humor. The Black Swan aer en osannolik bedrift som tilltalat laesare vaerlden oever - en svart svan helt enkelt.
Samuel Bohman aer forskningsassistent vid Institutet foer Framtidsstudier.
original and great insight October 10, 2008
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
This is the book I drag around everywhere, you can only read a few pages at a time because you need to think while digesting. the author is very knowledgable - sometimes too knowledgable, but that's a good thing, because he has a lot to say, a different point of view, a chip on his shoulder, intelligence to burn, a worldview bought to american shores, and he is conflicted about the class system - shrugging his shoulders at the suits, but flinging out big names here and there. No matter, it is worth the price of the book, because he stimulates thought. A sure sign of a good teacher, as well as tossing out more than a few investment strategies and his well-concieved notions about our financial system.
Love Taleb and hate him. I look forward to whatever he is working on now, and will go back & buy the Random book that everyone keeps referring to.
 The emperor has no clothes October 10, 2008
1 out of 3 found this review helpful
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable A highly disappointing text from an erudite and capable author. The book is fallacious, misleading and mischievous. The abuse of simple statistical distributions alone warrants not taking it seriously. It is oversold by the blurb and does not do what it says on the cover. Extremely disappointing.
 more unbearable than before, and now deluded October 9, 2008
0 out of 2 found this review helpful
Taleb was unbearable in "Fooled by Randomness." Fooled was, however, worth the read. "Swan" is targeted to a general audience; in this attempt Taleb has lost his potentcy. But to greater effect, Taleb now seems deluded. For example, he tells a story of his past when as a tween he frightens the government of his home nation into granting him immunity from political offenses. Sad naive existence
Good read, but fooled by randomness is better October 6, 2008
0 out of 2 found this review helpful
Black swans are rare, unpredicatable events that pack a big punch. As Teleb explains, they are not accounted for by modern financial theories. Black Swans are particularly relevant to today's market calamity...and they will likely arise many times in the remainder of our lifetimes...to our benefit...if we are prepared. The lesson is to prepare for these events...and to exploit them.
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