The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable | 
 enlarge | Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Creator: David Chandler
Publisher: Recorded Books
Category: Book
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Rating:  324 reviews
Sales Rank: 176563
Media: Audio CD
Number Of Items: 12
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Dimensions (in): 5.8 x 5.3 x 1.5
ISBN: 1428166556
EAN: 9781428166554
ASIN: 1428166556
Publication Date: August 2007
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Amazon.com
Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.
Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson
 Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.
Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.
Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it's something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.
The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.
Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."
In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson
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| Customer Reviews: Read 319 more reviews...
 Food for your brains August 28, 2008
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
This book is good. Maybe I don't even understand how good it is. The way Taleb is writing gets to your ego; he feels so cocky. But, yes, man has a point. I started to laugh to myself and to my capabilities of "estimating" and even "thinking" while reading this book. Taleb has interesting view point to life; don't try to predict it, or forecast it, life will fool you anyway, sucker! Don't believe in your most valued economic forecasters, they don't know much, unfortunate... for them. Expose your self to "black swans", positive ones hopefully, try to make negative black swans to be gray swans for you, if it is grey one you have prepared yourself well for future. These swans are rare events in life, which take place even we would not like them to happen. Even one event can make a difference, and most likely a shocking difference.
Insights and insults August 25, 2008
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
Taleb's main point--that the world is far more random and unpredictable than almost anyone grasps--is well worth making. This, as he shows, is especially clear and crucial in human-dominated activities such as economics, politics and the social sciences.
I was particularly struck by a graph that appears three-quarters of the way through the book that shows that the ten largest one-day changes in the U.S. stock market account for half of the returns. This is a mind-blowing demonstration that anyone, including the Nobel-prize-winning economists Taleb reviles--who estimates risk under the assumption that the stock market follows the Gaussian bell-shaped curve is on extremely shaky ground.
Taleb's more general position, that in most human activities, "black swans"--events like 9/11 that are intrinsically unpredictable--make the most difference, is also an invaluable eye-opener.
After many pages of argument, I'm even willing to agree that whether we like it or not, we do live in chaotic, risky and unpredictable "Extemistan" rather than relatively tranquil "Mediocristan."
Unfortunately, the more I came to appreciate what Taleb has to say, the less I liked how he says it. He comes across as an angry, aggressive, in-your-face intellectual snob. I was tired of his tirades and gratuitous insults by page 7. They continue through to the last line of the book, where he, a "person of commerce" takes a last swipe at other persons of commerce.
Still, if you can get past his abrasive style, you can benefit, and maybe even profit from his sometimes brilliant insights.
 Black Swans In American Industries August 23, 2008
2 out of 3 found this review helpful
A very interesting concept and I believe, a very true phenomena that exists in every walk of life. As a corporate human resources director, black swans can bring disastrous results if proper planning is not in place. While most of my career has been mundane to say the least, the periods where I experienced `Extremistan' were the times when great change happened either in my career or within the organization I was employed by.
Teaching your managers and leaders about the concept of black swans will result in positive benefits for your organization that are invaluable. In fact, grasping the black swan theory may even save the organization from ultimate failure.
This may not be viewed by many as a management book. These people would be wrong. Combined with Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking and Freakonomics [Revised and Expanded]: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything a leader in the management world will be fortified with the tools needed to survive the trips to Extremistan. Michael L. Gooch, SPHR Author of Wingtips with Spurs
Good info, good ideas, but got bored and couldn't finish it... August 21, 2008
1 out of 3 found this review helpful
As far as I got, it all seemed to make sense. The bell-curve IS inadequate. Ok, that's fine. And there are some great examples. There are plenty of reviews here that will give you all the goodies.
But all in all I have to say that there was a lot of clutter. If you're going to buy this book READ THE PREFACE, everything just clicks better.
Still many things seem irrelevant, or perhaps the connection was not explained enough. Lots of repetition. My overall sense is that it could have been shorter and to the point.
Needless to say, I liked as far as I got. I just felt that I had enough information and that reading the rest would just be repeating the beginning. Still, I'm happy I bought it and got as far as I did. The insight is good, and useful. So if the subject interests you, give it a try and hopefully you'll make it ot the end.
 Disaster Planning for Black Swans August 18, 2008
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
I have found Mr. Taleb's book to be a very interesting and thought provoking read. As an experienced emergency management professional and instructor, I find it calls into question the whole process of risk and hazard analysis. While the book is certainly intellectually stimulating and should cause one to be very careful with planning assumptions, I question its value in any direct application. While looking in the rear view mirror we don't know how many Black Swan's were prevented by well conducted risk and hazard analyses based on historical occurrences. As Mr. Taleb points out, history has overlooked the successful interventions and un-occurred disasters.
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